Drought

Drought in Brazil

A drought has built across parts of Brazil over the past year, including the highly populated Sao Paulo area, and the onset of El Niño threatens to aggravate drought conditions. Short-term impacts may include water rationing or even water cuts for some across the region, with long-term impacts potentially exacerbating political unrest across the country.

Rainfall over the past year is more than 17 inches below normal in Sao Paulo, leading to the widespread drought across the region. The dry season, which lasts through September, will offer little relief from the ongoing drought. Residents of some poorer communities surrounding Sao Paulo have complained about water cuts since March. Many people across the region are fearful that with millions of people expected to arrive in the coming weeks for the World Cup, water restrictions could become more severe. In an attempt to limit the impacts of the drought, water has been pumped from Sao Paulo's main reservoir to supply over 9 million people living in the region. As a result, reservoir levels are now at historically low levels.

With millions of people already being impacted by the drought, increased attention is being directed at the weather as people look for relief. Normal monthly rainfall during the month of June in Sao Paulo is only 53 mm (2.09 inches). Accuweather long-range meteorologists predict near- to below-normal rainfall for the month, bringing little or no aid to the dangerously low water reserves of the region. An El Niño, or a weather phenomenon noted by above-normal water temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to develop in the coming months, and this could have a drastic impact on the weather across the region. "The subtropical high pressure area off eastern Brazil tends to be stronger in El Niño years, which tends to deflect systems south of Sao Paulo.

Typically, this results in fronts stalling out over far southeastern Brazil." Below-normal precipitation is expected drought-stricken northern Brazil, while above-normal precipitation is predicted across areas farther south in Brazil.