Environment

100 Million Suffer Food-Water Shortages From El NIño

One of the strongest El Niños on record has left nearly 100 million people in southern Africa, Asia and Latin America with acute food and water shortages since late last year.

The ocean warming has also made many populations vulnerable to diseases such as Zika, according to various governmental, U.N. and relief agencies.

UNICEF warns that nearly 1 million children in eastern and southern Africa are suffering from “severe acute malnutrition” after two years of drought, preceding the current near-record El Niño.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said in a statement that rainfall in southern Africa “has so far been the driest in the last 35 years.”

Millions of other people in various parts of the world have suffered from heat waves, water shortages and wildfires since El Niño’s weather disruptions emerged in mid-2015.

El Niño's warmth is fading across the Pacific, but its influence on the world's weather will linger for months.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical cyclone 06p (Ula), is located approximately 443 nm north of Auckland, New Zealand, and is tracking east-southeastward at 12 knots.

Hurricane Pali is located about 825 mi...1330 km S of Johnston Island and about 1455 mi...2340 km SW of Honolulu Hawaii with maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/h. Present movement...S or 190 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h.

Invest 90L is an area of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic that has the potential for tropical development.

NewsBytes:

Iraq - The Mosul Dam in Iraq faces the danger that it may collapse because of insufficient maintenance, which would overwhelm major communities downstream with floodwaters. In the worst-case scenario, an estimated 500,000 people could be killed while more than a million could be rendered homeless if the dam, Iraq’s largest, were to collapse in the spring, when the Tigris is swollen by rain and melting snow.

Syria - Snow and cold weather grip war-torn Syria - Millions of Syrians are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance, aid workers say. Buildings have collapsed under the weight of snow.

El Niño - Australia's weather bureau said the 2015-16 El Nino weather event has peaked in the recent weeks and is likely return to ENSO Neutral by Quarter 2 of 2016.

Global Warming

Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt

Cyclical changes in the Pacific Ocean have thrown earth’s surface into what may be an unprecedented warming spurt, following a global warming slowdown that lasted about 15 years.

While El Niño is being blamed for an outbreak of floods, storms and unseasonable temperatures across the planet, a much slower-moving cycle of the Pacific Ocean has also been playing a role in record-breaking warmth. The recent effects of both ocean cycles are being amplified by climate change.

A 2014 flip was detected in the sluggish and elusive ocean cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, which also goes by other names, including the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Despite uncertainty about the fundamental nature of the PDO, leading scientists link its 2014 phase change to a rapid rise in global surface temperatures.

The effects of the PDO on global warming can be likened to a staircase, with warming levelling off for periods, typically of more than a decade, and then bursting upward.

“It seems to me quite likely that we have taken the next step up to a new level,” said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist with the National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

The 2014 flip from the cool PDO phase to the warm phase, which vaguely resembles a long and drawn out El Niño event, contributed to record-breaking surface temperatures across the planet in 2014.

The record warmth set in 2014 was surpassed again in 2015, when global temperatures surged to 1°C (1.8°F) above pre-industrial averages, worsening flooding, heatwaves and storms.

The effects of the warm phase of the PDO and the current El Niño may be cumulative in terms of warming the planet. It also seems likely that changes in the ocean cycles are linked, with changes between El Niño and La Niña driving changes in the PDO cycle.

Cold PDO phases have a blue background; warm phases are red.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical cyclone 06p (Ula), is located approximately 227 nm south of Suva, Fiji, and is tracking west-northwestward at 03 knots.

NewsBytes:

Scotland - A 16th century castle in Scotland is on the verge of collapse after chunks of soil were washed away by floods, threatening its foundations. Abergeldie Castle was evacuated after the River Dee washed away about 60 feet of land.

El Niño peaks, expected to decline in coming months

El Niño, which disrupted weather worldwide last year, has peaked. Now forecasters are predicting what may be next for the world’s climate.

A number of El Niño-Southern Oscillation indicators suggest that the 2015–16 El Niño has peaked and weather models predict it will decline in coming months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its website on Tuesday. Conditions will return to neutral during the second quarter with a chance of La Nina in the second half of 2016, it said.

La Nina is a cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sometimes thought of as El Niño’s opposite. The two are extreme phases of a naturally occurring cycle, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Based on the 26 Niño events since 1900, about 50% have been followed by a neutral year with 40 by La Nina, according to Australia’s weather bureau.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical cyclone 06p (Ula), is located approximately 122 nm southeast of Pago Pago, American Samoa and is tracking west-southwestward at 06 knots.

Tropical Depression Nine-C is located about 1070 mi...1720 km SSW of Johnston Island and about 1770 mi...2850 km SW of Honolulu Hawaii with maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h. Present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 3 mph...6 km/h.

NewsBytes:

Britain - Update - Many homes remained flooded and without power on Thursday, after heavy rain and strong winds battered northern Britain. Storm Frank spread on Tuesday and Wednesday, damaging property and affecting roads and rail services in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The government-affiliated Environment Agency said more than 6,700 homes in the north of England were flooded during the last week as river levels reached all-time highs. Flood warnings remained in place in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday.

USA - Update - The death toll from flooding in Missouri rose to 14 Wednesday, and at least two rivers rose higher than during devastating floods in 1993, officials said, but the region was bracing for more flooding.

El Nino set to continue in early 2016

The current strong El Nino brewing in the Pacific Ocean shows no signs of waning, as seen in the latest satellite image from the U.S./European Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 mission.

El Nino 2015 has already created weather chaos around the world. Over the next few months, forecasters expect the United States to feel its impacts as well.

The latest Jason-2 image bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997, by Jason-2's predecessor, the NASA/Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) Topex/Poseidon mission, during the last large El Nino event. Both reflect the classic pattern of a fully developed El Nino.

The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Nino. Higher-than-normal sea surface heights are an indication that a thick layer of warm water is present.

El Ninos are triggered when the steady, westward-blowing trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse direction, triggering a dramatic warming of the upper ocean in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Clouds and storms follow the warm water, pumping heat and moisture high into the overlying atmosphere. These changes alter jet stream paths and affect storm tracks all over the world.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

No current tropical storms.

El Niño

The current extreme El Niño is now the strongest ever recorded, smashing the previous record from 1997 -8. Already wreaking havoc on weather around the world, the new figures mean those effects will probably get worse.

El Niño occurs when warm water that has piled up around Australia and Indonesia spills out east across the Pacific Ocean towards the Americas, taking the rain with it. A key measure of its intensity is the warmth of water in the central Pacific. In 1997, at its peak on 26 November, it was 2.8 °C above average. According to the latest measurements, it reached 2.8 °C on 4 November this year, and went on to hit 3.1 °C on 18 November – the highest temperatures ever seen in this region.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Typhoon 27w (In-Fa), located approximately 233 nm northeast of Yap, is tracking west-northwestward at 17 knots.

Tropical Storm Rick is located about 485 mi...780 km SSW of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h. Present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h.

Tropical cyclone 03s (Three), located approximately 214 nm south-southwest of Diego Garcia, is tracking westward at 06 knots.

NewsBytes:

Kenya - More than 2,500 families have been displaced by floods in Tana River county after the River Tana overflowed. This brings to 10,000 the number of people affected by floods in the county.

Kenya - Floodwaters wreaked havoc in Narok town, blocking the Nairobi-Narok highway and many streets for most of Wednesday. At least 10 people have died in Narok South due to floods since the rains began this month.

El Niño Peaks at Record Level in Pacific

The intensity of El Niño peaked at a record level during the second week of November, leaving scientists wondering how much warmer the tropical Pacific could become during the current outbreak.

Analysis by the U.S. agency NOAA revealed a stretch between South America and Indonesia reaching a weekly average temperature of 3.0 degrees Celsius (5.4 F) above normal — a record.

Despite the peak, the current El Niño has yet to wield the same impacts of previous outbreaks in 1982-83 and 1997-98.

The ability to predict the effects of El Niño on worldwide weather patterns has greatly improved in recent years, but the warming is still likely to inflict considerable damage and even fatalities, according to the U.N.

“This event is playing out in uncharted territory. Our planet has altered dramatically because of climate change, the general trend towards a warmer global ocean, the loss of Arctic sea ice and of over a million square kilometer of summer snow cover in the northern hemisphere,” said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

He told a news conference that the naturally occurring El Niño and current manmade global warming may interact and modify each other in ways never before observed.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical storm 27w (twenty-seven), located approximately 264 nm southeast of Pohnpei, is tracking westward at 11 knots.

Invest 99E is an area of disturbed weather in the East Pacific that has the potential for tropical development.

NewsBytes:

Malaysia - A heavy two-hour downpour resulted in massive flash floods in parts of Johor Baru yesterday, trapping some motorists and forcing police to close off some roads. Dozens of cars were submerged following the downpour, which started at 11am. Many basement carparks in the city centre were also flooded due to the heavy downpour.

El Niño is expected to strengthen further this season, affecting wet and dry weather patterns around the globe.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Post Tropical Cyclone Kate is located about 430 mi...690 km SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland with maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h. Present movement...ENE or 60 degrees at 26 mph...43 km/h.

NewsBytes:

Britain - Floods have hit York after heavy rains. The River Ouse, which has a history of overflowing following heavy rain, has flooded parts of York. Roads running alongside the river were submerged as the water lapped up against the surrounding buildings. There are 27 flood alerts in place across the country.

El Niño - The strength of the present El Niño compares with the two strongest recorded – in 1997-98 and 1982-83 – both of which brought devastating droughts to Australia and Southern Africa.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical Cyclone Chapala (tc) 04a, located approximately 245 nm east-northeast of Socotra Island, Yemen, is tracking westward at 09 knots.

NewsBytes:

Texas, USA - Strong storms and heavy rains thundered across central and southern Texas Friday, causing floods that trapped school buses and other vehicles. The formation of several short-lived tornadoes is suspected.

El Nino's Global Weather Havoc Intensifying

Weather shifts believed caused by a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific are gaining momentum around the world, according to officials.

Drought in parts of Brazil, northern South America and the Caribbean are reportedly draining rivers and sparking wildfires.

The head of Colombia’s environment ministry says El Niño has caused “a rise in temperatures of between 5 and 6 degrees Celsius (9 to 10.8 F) in some regions of the country.”

Flooding from East Africa’s “short rains” are washing out roads and destroying crops in Kenya and Somalia, but the destruction is not as severe as during the 1997-98 record El Niño because there isn’t an accompanying warming of the Indian Ocean as seen back then.

The aid agency Oxfam warns that once the short rains end later this year, a protracted drought is likely to bring famine to some of the most impoverished areas of Africa.

The strengthening El Niño is also being blamed for the explosive development of Category-5 Hurricane Patricia off Mexico.

NOAA predicts a 95 percent chance the ocean warming will linger into next year, but says it will peak during the northern winter.

Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms - Roundup of Tropical Storms:

Tropical Depression Nora is located about 450 mi...725 km se of Hilo Hawaii with maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h. Present movement...W or 280 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h.

Tropical Storm Koppu is located approximately 757 nm south-southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan and is tracking westward at 11 knots.

Tropical Storm Champi is located approximately 614 nm east of Saipan, and is tracking west-northwestward at 20 knots.

Invest 96E is an area of disturbed weather in the East Pacific that has the potential for tropical development.

NewsBytes:

Pakistan - A landslide in Pakistan's Gulsitan-e-Jauhar area in Karachi has claimed the lives of at least 13 people including seven children on Tuesday. The landslide buried three shanties built on mud and sand.

Romania - Authorities say more than 20 people have been rescued after flash floods swept through a town in eastern Romania, submerging cars and flooding a railway embankment. Authorities said Tuesday that 23 cars were flooded in Corbu, a small town on the Black Sea coast, late Monday.

El Niño

El Niño is expected to be more beast than "little boy" this year — a forecast about the weather pattern that becomes clear in newly released maps of the waters around the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Environment

A Record El Niño Could Develop This Year

Conditions across the tropical Pacific have recently been comparable to what they were during the summer of 1997, when the most powerful El Niño on record was brewing.

The ocean-warming phenomenon typically peaks between December and April, which is providing hope for drought-ravaged California’s rainy season.

However, it is also prompting weather agencies to warn that it could lead to devastating drought from Australia to Asia and floods for South America.

The warming creates weather abnormalities in various other parts of the world as well.

Some forecast models predict further ocean warming of up to 4.9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal later this year.

Should this be realized, it would create the strongest El Niño since 1997.

Environment

El Niño is coming

This year is set to be 0.1°C warmer on average than 2014, thanks to an unusually strong El Niño warming the Pacific Ocean and the world's climate.

Last year was the hottest year in recorded history. It continued a trend of every year in the last decade being warmer than the one before. Nine of the ten hottest years in record happened in that same time period. This is despite all the things that traditionally make the world colder – less solar activity and more aerosols in the atmosphere – being dominant in the climactic system.

The odd year out was 1998. This corresponded with a strong El Niño. The phenomenon has a large-scale effect on sea surface temperatures, rainfall and air pressure. It starts when the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial regions of the Pacific – to the east of Australia – rapidly increase. This weakens the trade winds that blow across the region, taking the brakes off a warm patch of water that is normally pushed into one area of ocean near Australia.

The water then heads east, towards the Americas, where it warms more of the Pacific. It also starts warming the atmosphere. This then has a knock on effect on local weather systems across the planet – generally warming the planet and leading to less rainfall in the southern hemisphere and more in the northern hemisphere.

Environment

El Niño And La Niña

The World Meteorological Association (WMO) announced on Monday that the El Niño and La Niña climate patterns are unlikely to show themselves during the first half of 2013. Currently, neutral conditions continue in the tropical Pacific.

Environment - El Nino

The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Nino thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight, ocean temperatures cooled, remaining within the neutral range (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Chances are favourable that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.

Climate

Conditions in the Pacific appear to be shifting towards the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon after a period of neutral conditions. El Niño has implications for drought and flood conditions throughout the world.

 

El Niño

A weak El Niño has formed in the Pacific, showing a shift from neutral conditions following last year's La Niña. El Niño conditions are expected to persist.

 

Climate - El Niño

After a bout of La Niña and three years of drought, Chilean agriculture is anxiously awaiting a spell of El Niño to arrive. The industry hopes it could bring beneficial rains with it to help refill reservoirs, groundwater and reduce the country's water deficit.