Storms and Floods

Tropical Storms

In the Western Pacific:

Typhoon Nari is now west of Luzon in the northern Philippines. Satellite estimates indicate Nari has already dropped double-digit rainfall northeast of Manila, on the east side of the island's mountainous terrain. Nari is forecast to gain strength over the South China Sea and will head toward Vietnam by early next week.

Wipha is nearing typhoon strength in the western Pacific a few hundred miles west of Guam. The storm will intensify as it moves northwestward over the next few days but is no immediate threat to land.

In the Eastern Pacific:

Invest 94-E south of the Pacific coast of Mexico remains disorganized. Some moisture could get peeled off into Mexico as it parallels the coast into early next week, but significant development appears unlikely.

In the Indian Ocean:

Super Cyclonic Storm Phailin (pronounced Pie-leen) is the North Indian Ocean equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane bearing down on the east coast of India. The centre of Phailin is forecast to make landfall shortly somewhere between northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha, two very populous states along the subcontinent's east coast.

As many as 500,000 people in India have been evacuated as the massive cyclone sweeps through the Bay of Bengal towards the east coast.

Phailin has the potential of wreaking catastrophic damage as it moves ashore, with the deadliest threats being severe storm surge and flooding from torrential rainfall. The exact magnitude of the surge is difficult to pinpoint given the meteorological uncertainty and incomplete modelling in this part of the world but suffice it to say the impacts will be extreme, especially in low lying areas to the right of where Phailin makes landfall. Although the peak winds may come down it's also quite possible Phailin will continue to grow in size which would exacerbate the surge threat.