Global Warming

Worst-case global warming predictions are the most accurate, say climate experts

Current predictions of climate change may significantly underestimate the speed and severity of global warming, according to a new study.

Reappraisal of the models climate scientists use to determine future warming has revealed that less optimistic estimates are more realistic.

The results suggest that the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep global average temperatures from rising by 2C, may be overly ambitious.

Based on a “business-as-usual” scenario in which emissions continue at the same rate, climate models range in their predictions from a 3.2C increase in global temperatures to a 5.9C increase. The new study, published in the journal Nature, sought to resolve this situation and establish whether the upper or lower estimates are more accurate.

The study concludes that models with higher estimates were more likely to be accurate, with the most likely degree of warming 0.5C higher than previous best estimates.